Our friend Stacey Delo, from DiscussionDIVAS sent out a great reminder that despite the results from the Iowa Caucus, our vote and your vote still matter.
- Iowa typically does not predict the winner
There’s a lot of media and candidate hoopla surrounding Iowa because it’s the official kick-off for the race to the White House. But in fact only one non-incumbent Iowa winner since 1984 has gone on to win the presidency: George W. Bush.
- Iowa is 95% white
The point here is that Iowa doesn’t look like the rest of the country. Nationally, African-Americans make up 13% of the population and Hispanics 15%. In Iowa they make up just 2.5% and 3.8% respectively. The first relatively diverse states to vote will be Michigan (14% black, 4% Hispanic) and South Carolina (29% black, 3.5% Hispanic), both crucial primaries later this month.
- Don’t forget Tsunami Tuesday
In the 2004 election cycle, nine states held primaries on the same day in March—Super Tuesday. By then 20 other states had already cast votes, meaning the nominations were all but locked up. So in an effort not to be left out and get an earlier say, a slew of states pushed up their primary dates in this election to February 5. You’ll hear it referred to as Super Duper Tuesday or Tsunami Tuesday, when about 22 states will hold primaries or caucuses.
The big picture
This isn’t to say that Iowa isn’t a big deal—it is. For Republican winner Mike Huckabee and Democratic winner Barack Obama, Iowa certainly serves as a boost heading into the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday. Question is, will the momentum last? Plenty of prospective candidates have won Iowa only to stumble later in the primary season. Of course Bill Clinton lost in both states in 1992 but still won the overall election. Bottom line, unless you cast your vote in Iowa, your vote still matters.